Trade Flexibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility: an Impulse Response Function Approach for Russia

Author(s)	Prof. Dr. Shyam Charan Barma
Country	India
Abstract	The study analyzes the relationship between exchange rate, import, and export in the Russian economy using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Impulse Response Function model with historical data spanning from 1995 to 2022. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test reveals that the variables are non-stationary with intercept term at level data but stationary after first differencing. The VAR model results show that the exchange rate is significantly persistent, and import and export are influenced by their own lagged values as well as the lagged values of other variables. There is positive relationship between export and import and not only that we observed on the basis of this VAR model there is significant relationship between export and Exchange rate in the economy of Russia. Overall, the study provides insights into the dynamics of the Russian economy's exchange rate, import, and export and can help policymakers make informed decisions regarding trade policies.
Keywords	Keywords: Stationarity Test, Vector Autoregressive Model, Impulse Response Function, Engle Granger Regression Analysis.
Field	Sociology > Economics
Published In	Volume 17, Issue 3, July-September 2026
Published On	2026-07-03

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