“Quantifying the Seasonal Marketing Impact on Walmart’s Sales: A Causal Time-Series Approach with Treatment Effects”

Author(s)	Mrs. SAVITHA H S, Dr. Sirinivasa Murthy M D
Country	India
Abstract	Seasonal marketing plays a pivotal role in retail performance, particularly for global retailers like Walmart, whose weekly sales are significantly shaped by holiday-driven campaigns. Despite the widespread use of holiday promotions, limited empirical evidence exists on their causal impact on sales when accounting for economic and environmental moderators, such as the CPI, fuel prices, unemployment, and temperature. This study addresses this critical gap by developing and validating the Seasonal Marketing Impact Framework (SMIF), a model designed to evaluate the direct, moderating, and interactive effects of seasonal marketing on retail outcomes.
Keywords	Seasonal Marketing, Causal Time-Series Analysis, Walmart Weekly Sales, SARIMAX Model, Holiday Promotions, Retail Forecasting
Published In	Volume 16, Issue 2, April-June 2025
Published On	2025-06-25

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